I’m back from CTIA and had a great time. The show was much smaller this year than in the past but to some extent, that made it easier to network. (As one of my friends used to say “all the tourists have gone home.”) There was a lot of buzz around the shift to 4G – the next generation of wireless networks that promises higher speeds and capacity.
The real story of the show, however, was the abundance of mobile application stores. As with just about any change in the wireless industry over the last two years, Apple started the ball rolling with the addition of mobile applications to the iTunes store. This made it ridiculously easy for mobile application developers to reach consumers and even easier for consumers to download mobile applications to their phone. Gone are the two years of networking and cajoling of carriers to make your application one of a few dozen that appear on their “deck” of approved applications. iTunes literally has thousands of applications.
Device manufacturers realize that they were losing market share to Apple (who has gained 26% of the smart-phone market in less than two years!). It was no longer up to the carrier or the handset manufacturer to add functionality to their phones, they can focus on what they should do best, create a great platform, and allow developers to add functionality.
At CTIA Research In Motion (RIM) launched AppWorld for the Blackberry. (Download it by pointing your mobile phone browser to http://www.blackberry.com/appworld.) In fact, most of their booth was devoted to featured application developers. While some phones were about, there was little fanfare around the Bold or the Storm, their flagship smartphones.
Additionally, Samsung, Microsoft and Motorola announced their own application stores to join Symbian and Nokia’s application stores. To be sure, there will be a great deal of overlap between these stores and it will open a quandary and potentially a great opportunity for application developers.
Ironically, while Apple has broken down the Chinese Wall that has blocked application developers from getting their applications to consumers, it has also taken some heat for blocking some applications (http://news.cnet.com/8301-13846_3-10041187-62.html). With several stores having the ability to sell the same products (e.g., Samsung, Motorola and Microsoft will all sell Windows Mobile applications) will there be alternative channels for applications blocked from one store. I asked the folks at Samsung if they would sell applications to non-Samsung phones and they didn’t appear to have thought about this scenario. The marketing manager I spoke with indicated that there wouldn’t be anything blocking such sales.
Will there be a market for specialty stores (only applications for outdoors (REI Mobile), mobile photography (Ritz Mobile), etc. ? How many application stores can we handle? Interestingly, the mobile application stores can be quickly set up and be more of a marketing expense then a true money making operation. A simple payment mechanism, some advertising, a database, and automated customer service and shazam you are in the mobile application store business.
The net-net good news for all – it will be easier for developers to create and deploy applications for mobile phones. Additionally, the abundance of stores will lead to price competition to get higher revenue shares for developers. Some stores are already promising 70% of the application revenue for developers. This is a huge shift from developers getting 30% in some cases with applications sold through carrier stores. Consumers and businesses alike will appreciate the abundance of mobile applications for just about any need.
The net-net bad news – developers will have to deploy their applications across multiple stores to reach the market to have maximum exposure to their audience. They will also have to work to differentiate their applications for the consumers as thousands of applications flood the market. For consumers there is a double downside – tons of applications with most of them junk will make it hard to separate the wheat from the chaff.
The second downside for consumers – the months of testing that carriers used to put applications through before launch to ensure a positive interaction are gone. You will be lucky of most of these application stores load an application to see if it starts much less have extensive testing. Additionally having multiple applications loaded on your phone will lead to many unintended interactions in the near term. This will go away as mobile phone operating systems get more powerful, but be ready to reboot your phone ever day or two in the short term.
All-in-all a great show and I will be talking about some of the cool applications that I saw while there over the next few blog posts.