On my way back from CTIA I was able to share a cab with a product manager from Microsoft working on Windows Mobile Series 7. All of the press reports on this new platform seem positive, but I wonder if it isn’t a little too little too late. Apple, Google and RIM (yes RIM) have sown up a lot of the smartphone market while Microsoft has been largely dormant. My assumption is that this is largely due to their lack of ability to think outside of the box and their apparent corporate strategy to be a follower instead of a leader. (Can you think of one feature or platform where Microsoft is truly an innovator any more?)
Microsoft does have a lot going for it, however. Mainly the large number of business customers who run Windows servers and computers as well as a decent installed base of Exchange. In the past, they have simply developed products and features similar to other companies who have innovated and then made it easy for IT administrators to incorporate the product into their networks. Ironically, however, Microsoft seems to be bypassing the corporate market on their first pass and the first phone out the gate will be very social networking friendly. This may be because even corporate end-users are revolting against the boring IT provided phone. You can easily step on the line workers when they ask for a cool phone, but when the CEO, COO, CMO and CFO all want to carry iPhones, it is hard for the IT manager to say “No” and keep their job. Even the IT manager wants to carry an iPhone or an Android device.
The new competition will be welcome into the market. Microsoft has the financial wherewithal to go through an iteration or two (unlike Palm) until they get it right. Back to my cab ride with the product manager. I found three points very interesting:
- He considers Apple to be the big competitor in this space. He was almost dismissive of Android even though industry projections show Android taking the market share lead in a few years. I think they believe that Android will implode under its own weight with many different versions running on different handsets. He pointed out that each manufacturer will tweak its Android version for their platform which will make upgrading versions on phones very difficult if not impossible. (I didn’t point out that MS itself doesn’t really have a good track record in this area but perhaps this experience allows him to speak with authority…) He also correctly points to Google’s lack of experience with providing end-user support as another reason not to fear Android. That being said, Google, like Microsoft, has deep pockets and a lot of business models to make money from mobile. They are in it for the long haul and have the pockets to get it right eventually.
- He never mentioned RIM at all when discussing major competitors. This could be because they feel that they are going to take market share away from RIM. This is likely, not only with the smart phones but also with the cash cow Blackberry Enterprise Servers (BES). I can see a point where MS buys RIM after the loose enough market share and the value drops enough.
- The most disturbing learning, however, was that MS is going to lock-down the phone so that you MUST GO THROUGH THEIR APPLICATION STORE… This is very different from the current Windows Mobile phones where users can load any application they desire on the phone. No certification necessary. His point is that this is a requirement to “protect” the user experience. This is a believable argument, however I think the bigger argument is that it allows Microsoft to take a piece of the action for any applications sold…
